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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd